Oscars 2025: Predicting the Unpredictable
Gener8’s Survey functionality and the Demographic dataset enabled deep analysis of UK’s attitudes towards the Oscars
It’s that time of year again—Oscars season, where Hollywood’s finest gather to celebrate the best in film. As anticipation builds, and the biggest names in the industry prepare for their moment of glory, fans and critics alike are making their predictions.
But how good is the general public at predicting who will win Hollywood’s most coveted prize? Following the release of the nominations list on 23rd January, we launched a survey on the Gener8 platform to find out, learning more about the views and attitudes of the UK population towards the Oscars along the way.
And the winner is…
What are the UK public's attitudes towards Oscars?
First and foremost, we wanted to get a clearer sense of whether the UK public views the Oscars as a reliable measure of quality when it comes to movies and performances from the past year.
Nearly half of the respondents, 46%, agreed that the Oscars serve as a reliable indicator of the best movies and performances from the past year, while only 19% expressed disagreement. Interestingly, the survey revealed a notable gender divide in opinions. Men were more likely to disagree, with a higher tendency to strongly disagree with the statement. On the other hand, women showed a greater inclination to agree, with their agreement rate exceeding the overall average.
Among those who consider themselves passionate fans of movies and cinema, 54% agreed that the Oscars serve as a reliable indicator of a film’s overall quality. The percentage was even higher among individuals who regularly go to the cinema, with 60% believing that the Academy Awards are a strong measure of a movie’s excellence.
But does receiving an Oscar nomination actually influence whether someone decides to watch a movie?
38% of the respondents said that they are more inclined to watch a movie if it has either been nominated for or has won an Oscar. It was quite interesting to see that, although the overall response patterns were quite similar between men and women, there were some noticeable differences. Men tended to be more likely to strongly disagree with this statement, whereas women, on the other hand, were more likely to strongly agree.
As expected, a larger percentage of people who consider themselves avid cinema fans agreed with the statement compared to the overall average, coming in at 43%. Those who visit cinemas more frequently had an even higher agreement rate, with an impressive 52% of them expressing their support.
Interestingly, there was also a clear generational trend in the results. Younger generations were more likely to watch an Oscar-nominated film, while older generations showed a noticeable decline in their likelihood of doing so.
How does the UK public follow the Oscars?
Only 32% of the respondents mentioned that they plan to keep up with the results of this year’s Oscars ceremony. As expected, men are less inclined to follow the event, while women show more interest, with 36% of the female respondents saying they’ll follow the results.
It's worth mentioning that movie buffs are significantly more likely to tune into the Oscars, with 41% of them following the event. Even more interesting is that frequent moviegoers are even more inclined to watch, with 53% of them keeping up with the Oscars each year.
But how do people follow the Oscars ceremony?
When it comes to watching the Oscars, considering that the ceremony usually starts at 11pm UK time, only 11% of people have tuned in to watch the event live over the past five years. Most viewers are much more likely to watch clips online afterward (26%) or catch highlights on TV at a later time. In a similar vein, 17% of people preferred to read about the winners the next day instead of watching the ceremony in real-time.
Interestingly, although just 32% of the respondents overall said they plan to follow this year's Oscars, the actual number could be significantly higher. This is because a notable 73% of respondents reported that they’ve watched, read, or listened to the results about the winners over the past five years. This is where Gener8’s behavioural data can come into its own, helping you to combat the ‘say-do gap’ in responses by observing real, validated behaviour across browsing, app usage and purchases.
Can the public predict the Oscar winners?
When it comes to predicting the winner in the Best Actor category, the public in the UK has thrown their support behind Timothée Chalamet for his remarkable performance as Bob Dylan in the biographical musical drama The Complete Unknown. The breakdown of voter demographics was fairly balanced, although it’s worth noting that Millennials were particularly inclined, with an index of i109.
When looking at other intriguing demographic trends, voters who supported Colman Domingo for his standout performance in Sing Sing, showed a strong inclination toward being Gen Z, with an impressive index of i154.
When it comes to predicting who will take home the award for Best Actress, the UK public overwhelmingly voted for Cynthia Erivo for her standout performance as Elphaba in Wicked. Voters who backed her were predominantly women, with an index score of i166, compared to men, who voted for her with an index of i90.
When we look at the demographics of other nominees, it’s interesting to observe that those who voted for Mikey Madison for her role in Anora were primarily men, with an index of i131, compared to just i60 for women. Additionally, this group had a strong representation from Gen Z, who had an index of i150.
When it comes to predicting the winner of the Best Director category, the voting results were fairly close between four directors. However, Bradley Corbet ultimately emerged at the top, leading the nominations for his work on Brutalist, earning 25% of the vote. Looking more closely at the demographics of the respondents, we found that older generations tended to vote for Bradley at higher rates. Specifically, Gen X had a notable index of i127, reflecting a strong preference for his work.
There were some intriguing differences in demographic voting patterns among other nominators as well. Voters who selected Anora were more likely to be men, with an index of i123, and were also predominantly Gen Z, with an index of i159. On the other hand, those who cast their votes for Emilia Perez tended to be women, with an index of i135, and were generally older, with a significant portion of Gen X voters, who indexed at i122.
When it comes to predicting the winner of the Best Picture category, the UK public overwhelmingly voted for Wicked, which received the largest share of votes across both gender and generational groups.
Interestingly, women showed a significantly higher tendency to vote for Wicked with an index of i133, compared to men, who were at i73. On the other hand, men were much more inclined to vote for Dune: Part Two, scoring an index of i134, while women were considerably lower at just i59. This could be largely attributed to the film’s sci-fi genre, which traditionally appeals more to male audiences.
So, how accurate were the UK public’s predictions? Were they able to foresee the unpredictable? Stay tuned on 3rd March, when we’ll dive into the results and break it all down!
How can I access this data?
We utilised Gener8’s survey functionality to learn more about people’s attitudes towards the Oscars.
Gener8 Labs’ complete data and insights solution empowers media and marketing businesses to find actionable consumer and market insights, using our unique, consented, first party panel data sets that are all connected around one user ID.
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